Research
New Research: Commission Rates and Home Sales Volume — A 26-Year Analysis
There’s a widely held assumption that real estate commissions have been falling. The data tells a more complicated story.
We pulled 26 years of commission rate data from RealTrends—the industry’s most cited longitudinal dataset—alongside NAR existing home sales figures and U.S. Census home price data. We ran a correlation analysis across 35 years of observations.
The full methodology, figures, and references are available in the downloadable report below. Here are the key findings.
1. Commission rates have been flat for 26 years
From 2000 to 2025, the average U.S. real estate commission rate moved within a 52-basis-point band—from a low of 4.92% to a high of 5.44%. During this same period, existing home sales swung from 7.08 million units (2005) to 4.05 million (2025), a 43% decline from peak.
The rate did not respond proportionally—or directionally—to the largest sustained decline in transaction volume in the dataset.
2. Dollar commissions have more than doubled
While the percentage rate held steady, the dollar cost per transaction increased 136%—from $9,160 in 2000 to $21,586 in 2025—driven by home price appreciation.
- 2000: $169,000 avg home price × 5.42% = $9,160 commission
- 2010: $221,800 × 5.40% = $11,977
- 2020: $336,900 × 4.94% = $16,643
- 2025: $396,800 × 5.44% = $21,586
The Federal Reserve’s May 2025 FEDS Note found that rising home prices explain more than half of the modest decline in percentage rates—meaning the rate reduction that has occurred is largely a byproduct of price appreciation, not competitive pressure.
3. Commission rates move counter to sales volume
We tested the relationship between year-over-year changes in commission rates and changes in home sales across 35 years (1991–2025). The Pearson correlation was r = -0.35 (p = 0.045)—a statistically significant negative relationship.
In 67% of year-pairs, commission rates and sales volume moved in opposite directions. The pattern was strongest during major downturns: in both the 2006–2010 financial crisis and the 2022–2025 rate lock-in period, sales volumes dropped over 30% while commission rates increased.
This finding aligns with prior academic work. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (January 2014) independently documented the same counter-cyclical pattern.
4. Early post-settlement data shows limited impact
The NAR antitrust settlement took effect in August 2024. Redfin’s transaction data shows buyer’s agent commissions dipped from 2.43% to 2.36% immediately following implementation, then recovered to 2.43% by Q2 2025. The Clever Real Estate agent survey reported total commissions of 5.32% in 2024, rising to 5.44% in 2025.
It’s too early for definitive conclusions, but the initial trajectory is consistent with the broader pattern in the data: strong resistance to downward adjustment.
Read the full analysis
The complete report includes detailed methodology, all four figures, data tables, and 10 cited references from the Federal Reserve, NAR, academic journals, and industry sources.
Download: Commission Rates and Home Sales Volume — A 26-Year Analysis (PDF)
Sources: RealTrends (commission rates, 1991–2023); Clever Real Estate (2024–2025); NAR (existing home sales); U.S. Census/FRED (home prices); Federal Reserve FEDS Notes (May 2025); Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (January 2014).